01 / What changedA lower weekly average, still above July’s backdrop
Our APXMIDP record now runs through 11 October. July’s available intervals average £106.24/MWh, August £129.88 and September £129.55. The first eleven October days average £135.62/MWh, 27.7% above July. This compares a partial autumn month with a full summer month; it is not a 27.7% school bill increase or a prediction of the next renewal quote.
The 5–11 October mean is £129.51/MWh, 10.5% below the £144.68/MWh mean for 28 September–4 October. The shorter comparison has moved down while October remains above July. That is evidence of changing market conditions, not a reason to infer a guaranteed price trend. Check renewal dates and ask for comparable written quotes with the same delivery period and cost basis.
Inspect the observations02 / Why timing mattersDaytime electricity tells a different story
The weekday 08:00–16:00 UK-time proxy averages £96.41/MWh in July, £116.96 in August, £119.27 in September and £117.31 over the first eleven October days. These are below the corresponding all-hours means. The comparison shows why an annual, all-hours price assumption may miss the periods relevant to school demand and solar generation.
It does not calculate a roof’s capture price: generation varies with weather and orientation, while schools close, host lettings and use electricity outside teaching hours. Request a matched half-hour demand and generation assessment before assigning financial value to the timing relationship.
Read the practical timing feature03 / What could change nextWatch prices, charges and contract dates separately
NESO’s early winter view expects adequate national electricity supply. Its weather, gas-market and interconnector watch points can inform the risk discussion; they do not supply a school tariff forecast. Forward monthly and seasonal electricity quotes would answer a different question, but a licensed forward feed has not yet been connected here.
The 9 October TNUoS five-year forecast remains the latest listed version. September’s draft BSUoS rates for 2027/28 also remain draft, with final publication expected in December. This review found no newly published final DfE PPA template on the official guidance page, and the Ofgem migration milestone remains 7 May 2027. Keep contract charges and consent readiness separate from the wholesale-price movement.
Follow the changes calendar04 / The solar implicationA strong proposal should survive the downside test
Solar can reduce imported electricity when generation is consumed onsite. Its financial strength depends on the avoidable import cost, the PPA price, escalation, usage and retained responsibilities. This week’s lower wholesale average is a useful prompt to revisit assumptions. Neither a high month nor a cheaper week proves an installation’s savings.
Ask whether the case remains acceptable with falling grid prices and an escalating PPA. Our three-path comparison includes generation decline, additional annual costs and discounted differences. Bring the adverse result into the same discussion as the preferred case, then resolve roof, ownership, consent and contractual questions through the programme’s readiness framework.
Test all three price paths Previous interpretation: 9 October 2026
The original briefing used observations through 8 October. This is its dated record, not the current price assessment.
October’s opening days sit above July’s average
Our APXMIDP series averages £106.24/MWh across the available July intervals, £129.88 in August and £129.55 in September. The first eight October days average £148.68/MWh: 39.9% above July. That is an observed short-term index comparison between a partial autumn month and a full summer month, not a 39.9% school bill increase.
The last seven observed days average £148.16/MWh, 7.7% above the preceding seven. The signal warrants attention at renewal, but cannot establish the direction or price of a future school contract. July and September each contain a small number of excluded no-volume intervals; the dashboard shows coverage and download flags.
Daytime electricity tells a different story
The weekday 08:00–16:00 UK-time proxy averages £96.41/MWh in July, £116.96 in August, £119.27 in September and £129.96 over the first eight October days. These are below the corresponding all-hours means. The comparison shows why an annual, all-hours price assumption may miss the periods relevant to school demand and solar generation.
It does not calculate a roof’s capture price: generation varies with weather and orientation, while schools close, host lettings and use electricity outside teaching hours. Request a matched half-hour demand and generation assessment before assigning financial value to the timing relationship.
Watch prices, charges and contract dates separately
NESO’s early winter view expects adequate national electricity supply. Its weather, gas-market and interconnector watch points can inform the risk discussion; they do not supply a school tariff forecast. Forward monthly and seasonal electricity quotes would answer a different question, but a licensed forward feed has not yet been connected here.
Network charges and settlement changes need their own check. A school’s fixed term, renewal date and pass-through clauses determine when changes matter. A favourable market movement can coexist with increased non-commodity costs. Keep the commodity price, retained charges and future contract assumptions visible in the board paper.
A strong proposal should survive the downside test
Solar can reduce imported electricity when generation is consumed onsite. Its financial strength depends on the avoidable import cost, the PPA price, escalation, usage and retained responsibilities. Higher observed wholesale prices strengthen the reason to investigate those inputs; they do not prove a particular installation’s savings.
Ask whether the case remains acceptable with falling grid prices and an escalating PPA. Our three-path comparison includes generation decline, additional annual costs and discounted differences. Bring the adverse result into the same discussion as the preferred case, then resolve roof, ownership, consent and contractual questions through the programme’s readiness framework.